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More About This Title The Era of Uncertainty + website: Global Investment Strategies for Inflation, Deflation, and the Middle Ground
English
Katherine Krantz is Managing Director and Founding Partner of Miracle Mile Advisors, LLC, an investment advisory firm located in Beverly Hills and New York. She serves as the Chief Economic Strategist and is responsible for the firm's macro view and asset allocation framework.
English
Preface xvii
Acknowledgments xxi
Part I Why “Macro Matters” 1
Chapter 1 What Is Macro, and Why Should Investors Care? 3
Macro Explains More Than 70 Percent of Equity Returns 5
Macro’s Role in Bubble-Mania 7
Chapter Summary 14
Chapter 2 The Ever-Changing Macro Landscape 17
Macro in the Age of Globalization 17
The Increasing Role of Macro in the Years Ahead 22
Learning from Macro-Driven Markets of the Past 28
Chapter Summary 33
Chapter 3 Harnessing the Power of the Business Cycle in Investing 35
Macro Is the Bedrock of Successful Investing 37
Chapter Summary 42
Chapter 4 The Pitfalls of Ignoring Macro Influences: Accidental Success 43
Macro Lessons Are Learned through Experience 44
Chapter Summary 48
Part II The Roots of the New Era of Uncertainty: The Credit Crisis 49
Chapter 5 A View from the Front Lines 51
The Bubble Intensifies 55
Slaying of the Bear 57
Chapter Summary 58
Chapter 6 In the Weeds 61
The Fog of War 62
The Bubble Was Predictable! 67
And the End Was Foreseeable . . . Macro Could Have Helped 71
Chapter Summary 76
Part III Current Policies Are Leading Us Down an Unsustainable Path 79
Chapter 7 No More Tools in the Toolbox 81
A Breakdown in the Traditional Economic Model of the United States 83
It’s All About the Consumer! 85
Exports Are Not Enough 89
Chapter Summary 93
Chapter 8 The Government’s Un-Safety Net 95
Inflation Enters the Picture 97
Spinning Our Wheels 98
Nowhere Fast 101
Chapter Summary 103
Chapter 9 Kicking the Can Down the Road 105
QE Was an Experiment 105
We’re All Keynesians Now…Unfortunately? 108
Uncertainty Kills Growth 111
The State and Local Time Bomb 114
The Privatization Option 118
No Short-Term Fixes 120
Chapter Summary 122
Chapter 10 Threats to Righting the Path of Policy 125
Mobility Threatens Austerity 125
Inequality and Protectionism 128
Business Cycle Trends Could Exacerbate the Policy Conundrum 130
Chapter Summary 131
Part IV Investing for an Uncertain Future 133
Chapter 11 A Closer Look at Inflation 135
Anatomy of Inflation in the United States 136
The Consumer IS Exposed to Food and Energy 140
Policies to Avoid Deflation Often Lead to Inflation 142
Pushing on a String 147
Inflation has Social and Political Consequences 150
Market Indications of Inflation 153
Chapter Summary 156
Chapter 12 Strategies for Investing in Inflationary and Deflationary Environments 159
Conventional Wisdom—Hedging for Higher Infl ation 160
Making the Turn—Hedging for Slower Growth 165
Policy Responses Bring About Extremes 170
Disinflation versus Deflation 171
Mild Deflation versus Deflationary Spiral 173
Fixed Income Is a Deflationary Safe Haven 177
The Middle Ground 178
Goldilocks in the Emerging Markets 180
Chapter Summary 181
Part V Unintended Consequences and Creative Solutions 183
Chapter 13 Unintended Consequences 187
QE = WMD? 187
Chapter Summary 193
Chapter 14 Creative Alternatives for the Future 195
The War on the Deficit 196
Chapter Summary 202
Epilogue: The Financial Services Industry in the Era of Uncertainty 205
Notes 207
About the Authors 215
About the Digital Companion 217
Index 219
