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- Wiley
More About This Title Profiting from the World's Economic Crisis: Finding Investment Opportunities by Tracking Global Market Trends
English
Praise forPROFITING FROM THE WORLD'S ECONOMIC CRISIS
"Someone is going to make money in the next decade. Perhaps Bud will help you find your way."—JIM ROGERS, cofounder, Quantum Fund; author, A Gift to My Children
"Where everyone today has an opinion on everything, much of it gleaned from a blog, Bud Conrad's constant mantra is 'What does the data say?' And then he rolls up his sleeves and works almost around the clock for as many days as it takes to get to a defensible answer. In other words, there are those who talk, and those who do. Bud does. In Profiting from the World's Economic Crisis, Bud tells you what the data shows about the risks and opportunities just ahead. You'll want to pay attention."—DAVID GALLAND, Managing Editor, The Casey Report
"Bud Conrad's book is a brutally honest journey into the future. Honest because Bud builds on facts, not popular opinion; brutal as he??illustrates the logical consequences as global dynamics play out. You can't afford not to read this book."—AXEL MERK, President and Chief Investment Officer, Merk Mutual Funds; author, Sustainable Wealth
"This book could not be better timed, as the government and Wall Street do their best to convince the public that the financial storm has passed. Bud Conrad begs to differ and using his unique ability to take complex data and distill it into straightforward charts, he not only explains how the hurricane developed, but why it's far from over. He then goes on to show investors not just how to survive the storm's resurgence, but how to prosper."—STEVE HENNINGSEN, Chief Financial Strategist, The Wealth Conservancy
"Right now you may be asking yourself 'What's going to happen to the economy, why is it happening, and what can I do to profit from it?' As far as I'm concerned, Bud has the correct answers to these questions. Among other things, this book will become 'the' reference book for data and charts that economists and investors will go to for years to come. I urge you to read this book—now—and act on its advice."—DOUG CASEY, Chairman, Casey Research, bestselling author, Crisis Investing
English
BUD CONRAD is the Chief Economist at Casey Research and has been a futures investor for twenty-five years, as well as a full-time investor for more than a decade. He holds an MBA from Harvard and an electrical engineering degree from Yale. Conrad has held positions with IBM, CDC, Amdahl, and Tandem. His comprehensive picture of the world's economy, based on a career of using long-term fundamental analysis, enables him to explain how this crisis arose and where it will evolve to. He uses insights learned from his engineering training to interpret how investment cycles affect our economy. He served as a local board member of the National Association for Business Economics and taught graduate courses in investing at Golden Gate University. A popular speaker, Conrad has delivered talks in New Zealand, Dubai, New York, Vancouver, Denver, Phoenix, Las Vegas, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Chicago. He has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, New Zealand 3news, and has commented in many publications from the Wall Street Journal to Reuters.
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Acknowledgments ix
Introduction xi
PART ONE ECONOMIC FORCES 1
Chapter 1 The Budget Deficit Drives the Growth of All Debt 3
Chapter 2 The Trade Deficit and U.S. Dependency on Foreign Investments 27
Chapter 3 The Big Costs of Health Care, Social Security, and the Military 63
PART TWO FINANCIAL CRISIS RESPONSE 75
Chapter 4 The Federal Reserve Prints Our Money (Stop the Presses!) 77
Chapter 5 The Importance of Debt for Predicting Our Economy 115
Chapter 6 The Big-Picture Model of Our Economy 139
PART THREE RECESSION OR DEPRESSION? 157
Chapter 7 What Can the 1929 Great Depression Teach Us about Today’s Crisis? 159
Chapter 8 What the United States Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decade(s): 1989–2009 183
Chapter 9 What the United States Can Learn from German and Other European Hyperinflations, and from China Today 211
PART FOUR INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES 227
Chapter 10 The Stock Market May Be Dead for Another Decade 229
Chapter 11 Energy in the 21st Century: The End of the Petroleum Age 241
Chapter 12 Food, Grain Trading 261
Chapter 13 The Demise of the Dollar 273
Chapter 14 Interest Rates: The Trade of the Decade 299
Chapter 15 Gold Is the Only Real Money 325
PART FIVE PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER 367
Chapter 16 Forecast for the Future 369
Chapter 17 Looking Over the Horizon to See the Best Investments 385
List of Tables and Figures 421
About the Author 429
Index 431
